Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 37.486062 40.667976 44.169720 48.343889 53.230974 58.832043 65.827896
2025-06-29 32.605511 36.677559 41.456586 47.591210 55.433328 65.392823 79.492882
2025-07-06 29.325416 33.677693 38.981251 46.105028 55.744020 68.884404 89.322017
2025-07-13 28.132330 32.956154 39.054080 47.629243 59.949503 78.127339 109.794966
2025-07-20 27.019916 32.163856 38.864574 48.659524 63.495444 87.056993 133.097982
2025-07-27 25.991061 31.353870 38.518560 49.348835 66.549429 95.835590 160.245586
2025-08-03 24.812832 30.232580 37.613214 49.063204 67.949440 102.031854 185.478374
2025-08-10 23.579945 28.942789 36.350671 48.070925 67.978845 105.628441 206.783169
2025-08-17 22.476101 27.759759 35.146969 47.033670 67.751041 108.630116 228.794210
2025-08-24 21.585374 26.822182 34.231480 46.356208 68.048397 112.796745 258.301596
2025-08-31 20.754070 25.923151 33.311527 45.579829 68.041251 116.288142 289.436301
2025-09-07 20.495084 25.826220 33.580318 46.786697 71.978122 130.296483 386.904637
2025-09-14 19.858074 25.166856 32.976871 46.504112 73.037088 137.821601 474.337684
2025-09-21 19.139518 24.356693 32.095765 45.666899 72.846912 142.002938 556.778833
2025-09-28 18.356401 23.417386 30.961806 44.289885 71.322476 141.884280 608.424291
2025-10-05 18.234884 23.455846 31.370065 45.712143 76.121030 163.288177 1051.217532
2025-10-12 18.021246 23.342059 31.522076 46.672909 80.079537 184.668771 2109.403442
2025-10-19 17.757139 23.136997 31.509044 47.315116 83.417145 206.404522 6369.722489
2025-10-26 17.341042 22.679232 31.050439 47.049054 84.439781 219.408148 41265.925599
2025-11-02 16.831114 22.057408 30.287834 46.124178 83.615841 223.569433 NaN
2025-11-09 16.341230 21.451787 29.528257 45.156411 82.559013 226.276137 NaN
2025-11-16 15.935554 20.966041 28.952885 44.523795 82.334487 233.494864 NaN
2025-11-23 15.534514 20.475744 28.350675 43.798282 81.764630 238.765325 NaN